BREXIT POLLS: MIXED LEVELS OF CONVICTION AMONG LEAVE AND REMAIN VOTERS

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LONDON (Alliance News) – Ipsos Mori research has indicated a mixed level of conviction amongst Leave and Remain supporters on their respective stances, while Scotland remains firmly in favour of the UK staying in the European Union.

Ipsos Mori said its research found Leave voters are as convinced that leaving will be better for the UK’s economy as Remain voters are that staying would be better.

Using a technique called Implicit Reaction Time, which measures how quickly a person expresses an opinion, Ipsos found 45% of Leave voters “emphatically agree” that the UK economy will be healthier outside the EU, while 44% of Remain voters are equally convinced of the opposite.

It discovered that Leave voters, despite appearing to be ahead on explicit support for their stance, are no more emphatic that their preferred voting option would be better. A significant number of respondents were slow to agree on the benefits of leaving the EU, suggesting less confidence in this viewpoint.

The pollster found neither side is sure that leaving the EU would reduce immigration. Among Leave voters, Ipsos found 89% said leaving would cut immigration levels but only 38% said so enthusiastically.

The Ipsos research backed the long-held assertion that turn-out will be a key determinant of how the referendum swings. It found those uncertain on whether they will vote have stronger associations to the Remain camp, while support for Leave is higher among those who emphatically say they will vote.

“Looking at people’s subconscious responses to what are very complex and uncertain concepts gives a new dimension to our understanding of how convinced people are. The level of conviction Leave voters have that Brexit would be good for the economy is surprising, given the overwhelming interventions from a range of bodies stating the opposite,” said Bobby Duffy, managing director of the Ipsos Social Research Institute.

“Even more surprising is that they are less sure about what is supposed to be the flagship issue of the Brexit cause ? reducing immigration. This combined with the fact that a significant number of Leave voters are not fully convinced that a Brexit would be better for Britain overall could still come into play when they actually reach the ballot box,” he added.

Elsewhere, Ipsos found the overwhelming majority of Scots still back the UK remaining in the EU, with 64% in favour of a vote to stay against 36% to leave.

On the question of whether a vote to leave should spark a new referendum on Scotland’s place in the UK, however, voters are more evenly split. The Ipsos poll found 47% agree a second independence referendum should take place, against 45% who disagree.

Meanwhile, BMG Research found significant levels of dissatisfaction with Prime Minister David Cameron and Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn over their parts in the Remain campaign. BMG said 59% of respondents to its survey said they were dissatisfied with the job Cameron is doing, while 49% expressed the same sentiment on Corbyn.

By Sam Unsted; samunsted@alliancenews.com; @SamUAtAlliance

Copyright 2016 Alliance News Limited. All Rights Reserved.

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